Ranking 6 underdogs by best playoff chances

As the MLB season progresses into 2026, several teams find themselves unexpectedly contending for playoff spots. With the season approximately a quarter underway, rankings are compiled for six of the most surprising teams, assessing their chances of making the postseason based on both talent and their paths to the playoffs.

1. Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays stand out with a notable 24-12 record, driven by a remarkable 12 wins in their last 13 games. They rank fourth in MLB this season and share the distinction of having three players among the top 25 hitters in wRC+: Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero. The pitching side shows promise with a solid team ERA of 3.58, but rotation depth poses a concern with injuries plaguing key pitchers. Despite this, the Rays have created a cushion in the AL Wild Card race.

2. Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 20-17, just behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the third NL Wild Card spot. Their revamped offense has shown capability, especially with rookie Konnor Griffin stepping up. The starting rotation boasts the lowest FIP in MLB at 3.30, bolstered by strong performances from reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes and others. However, challenges in the NL playoff race might limit their prospects this season.

3. Athletics
The Oakland Athletics currently lead the AL West with an 18-18 record, despite a negative run differential of -21. Their pitching has struggled with a team ERA of 4.67, and their offense has not met expectations. The potential exists for improvement from core players Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, and Brent Rooker, and if they can elevate their performance, the Athletics could capitalize on a weak division.

4. White Sox
Having previously suffered significant losses, the Chicago White Sox are experiencing a turnaround with a record of 17-20. Star slugger Munetaka Murakami, along with rising talent Colson Montgomery, leads the charge. Their recent performance has put them within 1.5 games of the AL Central lead, thanks to stable pitching from Davis Martin and Sean Burke.

5. Reds
The Cincinnati Reds, despite making the playoffs last season, present a surprise due to their inconsistent start. Currently at 20-11, they heavily rely on stars Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart for run production. The return of pitcher Nick Lodolo from the IL might help stabilize their rotation, yet the competitive division raises concerns over their playoff viability.

6. Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals were expected to enter a rebuilding phase after trading several veterans, yet they have begun the season with a 21-15 record. The emergence of young players Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt contributed to their success. Nonetheless, their pitching staff struggles with the lowest strikeout rate in MLB, raising doubts about their long-term playoff potential.