Yankees vs. Rays prediction, odds: 2026 MLB picks for May 23

On May 23, 2026, the Tampa Bay Rays aimed to extend their winning streak to six games against the New York Yankees. This matchup occurred after the Rays defeated the Yankees 4-2 on the previous night. The Rays boasted a record of 34-15 and had a 15-10 record on the road this season. Conversely, the Yankees held a record of 30-22 and trailed the Rays by 5.5 games in the American League East, with a home record of 16-9 in 2026.

Drew Rasmussen, who had a 4-1 record and a 3.19 ERA, was set to start for the Tampa Bay Rays, while Ryan Weathers, holding a 2-2 record and a 3.58 ERA, was slated to start for the Yankees. The first pitch was scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium. In this matchup, the Yankees were favored at -138 on the money line, while the over/under was set at 7 runs.

Before placing any bets on the Rays vs. Yankees game, it was recommended to check insights and predictions from SportsLine's proven model. The model, which simulates each MLB game 10,000 times, entered Week 9 of the MLB season riding a hot streak with a 12-1 record on all top-rated MLB picks. Its success included making profitable home run prop picks in 2025, yielding nearly 30 units of profit. Those following the model’s bets at sportsbooks saw strong returns.

For this game, after simulating the matchup 10,000 times, the model projected that the total runs would go over 7 combined runs. This prediction aligned with the trend where the over had hit in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings. It also highlighted that the over had cashed in seven of the last 10 games for Tampa Bay, and in four of the last seven games for New York.

Additional forecasts indicated that Tampa Bay's Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Yandy Diaz would accumulate 1.6 total bases or more. Meanwhile, the Yankees' Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger were expected to surpass 1.5 total bases each. Overall, the model anticipated 9.4 combined runs, with the over hitting in 67% of simulations.

In summary, with the model’s analysis and extensive simulation, an informed betting decision for the Yankees vs. Rays matchup could be made at SportsLine, where specific betting values were uncovered.