College Football Picks for Week 4, 2026: Colorado, USC

In Week 4 of college football for the year 2026, numerous matchups prompt betting predictions as conference play officially begins for many teams. According to SportsLine's model, there are notable games such as USC vs. Oregon where Oregon is a -3 favorite and Michigan vs. Iowa with Iowa as a +5.5 underdog. The SEC offers the game of Texas vs. Tennessee with Tennessee as a +4.5 underdog, while the Big 12 features Colorado facing Baylor, with Baylor favored at -10.

Another key game is the in-state rivalry between Notre Dame and Purdue. In their 90th meeting, this contest for the Shillelagh Trophy sees the Irish heavily favored by 27.5 points, having won the last eight encounters. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, fans can look forward to NC State taking on App State, where App State is a +14 underdog, as NC State aims to bounce back after a surprising last-minute loss to Vanderbilt.

Before finalizing any bets for Week 4, bettors are encouraged to check the latest predictions from SportsLine's model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. The model has had a profitable start to the season at 22-19 for all top-rated college football picks thus far, and it has been upgraded for the current season to better incorporate the transfer portal trends.

One of the highlights among the model's top predictions for Week 4 includes Colorado covering the spread of +10 against Baylor in a noon ET kickoff. Despite being heavily defeated last week by Northwestern, Colorado's performance under head coach Deion Sanders has shown resilience, with a record of 11-5-2 against the spread (ATS) after a loss, boasting a 69% cover rate, which ranks as the 10th best in FBS since Sanders' inaugural season in 2023 (with a minimum of five games).

Conversely, Baylor has struggled with performance after wins, holding an 0-6 record against the spread after a victory dating back to 2025. With the model predicting that Colorado has a strong chance to cover in over 50% of simulations in this matchup, it remains an A-rated pick. The Over is also projected to hit about 56% of the time.