Bees host three-game losing newly promoted Burnley.
Brentford vs. Burnley kicks off at 15:00 [GMT] on Saturday, November 29, at Gtech Community Stadium.
Brentford [WWLWL] and Burnley meet again in the Premier League with both sides carrying very different momentum. The numbers underline just how sharply their seasons have contrasted so far. The rivalry itself has produced a clear home-field pattern: all four Premier League meetings have been won by the home side, with Brentford claiming comfortable 2-0 and 3-0 victories in their two fixtures in west London. Brentford will feel confident returning to the Gtech Community Stadium, where they have been one of the league’s most reliable home performers this season. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have more home wins and more home goals. The Bees have four home victories already, scoring 12 goals in those matches. Brentford’s ability to win penalties may also play a role. They have scored more penalty goals than any team this season and historically convert a higher share of spot-kicks than any club with 100+ Premier League goals. Paradoxically, they remain the only side yet to score from a corner or free kick this season, but their direct play inside the box continues to make them dangerous. In addition, history favours them strongly when facing newly promoted sides. Since their debut Premier League season in 2021, Brentford have won ten consecutive home games against promoted opposition, scoring at least twice in each of those wins. They would be keen to claim one of such victories when they appear with a 4—2—3—1 having Igor Thiago in attack.
Newly promoted Burnley [WWLLL], however, have historically had the edge overall, winning five of the last seven league encounters between the clubs, a strong run that nearly matches their tally from the previous 21 meetings combined. However, they arrive needing a spark. Their defensive numbers paint a worrying picture: only Wolves and West Ham have conceded more goals this season. The Clarets’ two clean sheets both came against fellow promoted teams, highlighting their struggles against established Premier League sides. Their attacking output has been even more concerning. Burnley have the lowest expected goals total (8.7) in the league and are the only team with fewer than 100 shots so far. Their average of 8.2 attempts per game is currently on course to be the lowest ever recorded in a Premier League season since such data began in 1997–98. Given Burnley’s blunt attack and Brentford’s strong home form, the stats point firmly towards another Bees victory—if they can avoid another costly drop-off after taking the lead. A 4—2—3—1 formation with Zian Flemming in attack is expected against the Bees.