2026 U.S. Open predictions by model with 17 major wins

The final round of the U.S. Open 2026 was underway at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, N.Y., on June 21, 2026. Wyndham Clark remained even on the day in Round 3 to stay at 7 under, while the rest of the field lost ground. After entering the weekend with a four-shot lead, Clark increased his advantage to six strokes ahead of four golfers: Scottie Scheffler, Sam Stevens, Sahith Theegala, and Tom Kim, all at 1 under. This marked the largest 54-hole lead at the U.S. Open since Rory McIlroy in 2011.

The final pairing of Scheffler and Clark was scheduled to tee off at 2:30 p.m. ET. Clark was the -280 favorite (risk $280 to win $100) according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Scheffler, who aimed to complete the career Grand Slam, stood at +600, with no other golfer listed lower than +2700.

Before placing any bets for the Sunday round of the 2026 U.S. Open, it was recommended to refer to the predictions and projected leaderboard from the reliable model at SportsLine. This model, developed by DFS pro Mike McClure, had simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times, delivering profitable betting picks. The model previously called 17 majors accurately, including the 2026 Masters, marking its fifth consecutive Masters win, and last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.

As the 2026 U.S. Open approached Sunday, the model simulated the remainder of the tournament 10,000 times, yielding unexpected results. One major surprise from the model was its prediction to overlook Sam Stevens in the outright, top-5, and top-10 markets; it projected he would finish 11th despite being among the four golfers tied for second place at 1 over. At 29, Stevens had yet to win on the PGA Tour, with his best major finish being T23. He had climbed into contention with rounds of 68 and 69 but shot a 72 on Saturday, and predictions indicated he would drop out of contention by the end of Round 4.

Conversely, the model expressed confidence in Xander Schauffele, placing him in the top-5 market (+110) as he entered Sunday T6 at 1 over. Although he had never won the U.S. Open, Schauffele had shown consistency at the event, with T14 being his lowest finish. He had three career top-5 finishes at the U.S. Open, alongside numerous near misses, leading the model to predict he would remain close to the top of the leaderboard.

The model had determined the potential winners and detailed top-30 projections for top-5, top-10, and top-20 picks for Sunday, which could be viewed exclusively on SportsLine.