Could Chelsea escape a disastrous Premier League season?

Chelsea FC managed to earn their first point in Premier League action since March 4 with a 1-1 draw against Liverpool on Saturday. However, this result offered little consolation as their prospects for qualifying for next season's UEFA Champions League continued to dwindle, despite the possibility of a sixth-place finish becoming more tangible.

Currently, Chelsea finds themselves in ninth place following a disappointing run of form. They remain level on points with Liverpool as of early March, but as of this weekend, they trail fifth-place Aston Villa by nine points with only three matches remaining. A victory at Anfield was a necessity for Chelsea to maintain any hope of making a comeback. Although fifth place now feels out of reach, the Champions League qualification remains a theoretical possibility, contingent upon a series of favorable outcomes and an uptick in their performance during the final two matches.

A unique situation could allow a sixth Team from the Premier League to compete in the Champions League next season, but Chelsea must first rectify their current standings. Clubs such as Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Brentford were ahead of Chelsea heading into the weekend, and although only three points separated all four teams, one of them may very well secure a Champions League spot ahead of the two-time winners, Chelsea.

The sixth-place team in the Premier League could potentially qualify for the Champions League under new guidelines. The league is guaranteed four representatives in next year’s competition, but the introduction of the Swiss style format for the 2024-25 season allows for an additional spot for the top two countries in UEFA's association club coefficient rankings. England currently leads these rankings, benefiting from the consistent success of its teams in European tournaments this season. Arsenal's qualification for the Champions League final against Paris Saint-Germain on May 30 contributes positively to this ranking, which has ultimately positioned the Premier League to potentially earn a fifth spot.

However, an intriguing complication arises from Aston Villa's impending UEFA Europa League final against Freiburg on May 20. If Villa were to win the Europa League and finish fourth in the Premier League, they would qualify for the Champions League twice, but this outcome would not benefit other teams in the Premier League. Winning the Europa League opens an additional Champions League spot solely for the victor, not expanding opportunities for the other teams in the league.

Thus, Chelsea’s path to qualification remains complex, needing not only to solve their domestic woes but also to navigate the outcomes of other clubs in the league. As it stands, Chelsea’s campaign requires both miraculous performances on their end and a stroke of luck in the broader competitive landscape.