NBA Draft Lottery's New '3-2-1' Proposal Explained

The NBA is poised to introduce a new draft lottery system beginning with the 2027 draft, aiming to curb the trend of teams intentionally losing games to secure higher draft picks, known as "tanking." This initiative arises after extensive discussions and fines imposed on teams like the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers for tanking-related infractions during the 2025-26 season.

The proposed reform, dubbed the "3-2-1" lottery system, will expand the number of teams eligible for the lottery from 14 to 16. This will encompass the 10 teams that missed the playoffs entirely, the 9th and 10th seeds in both conferences, and the losers of the "Play-In Tournament" games between the 7th and 8th seeds.

Under the new odds structure, the teams with the three worst records will be placed in a "relegation" zone, each receiving just two lottery balls. The other seven teams that failed to make the postseason will each receive three balls. In contrast, the No. 9 and 10 seeds will receive two each, while the loser of the 7 vs 8 Play-In game will only get one. This new format offers a total of 37 lottery balls distributed across 16 teams.

The proposed system significantly revises the likelihood of securing the No. 1 pick compared to the existing format. For instance, the worst records that previously had a 14% chance of landing the top pick under the old system will see that chance drop to 5.4% in the new format. Conversely, teams ranked 7 through 16 will experience an increase in their odds of obtaining higher picks. The reformed system allows for the worst teams to potentially drop as far as the 12th pick, a notable change from the existing policy which ensures that the worst team cannot select lower than the fifth overall pick.

Moreover, the new lottery system intends to include additional measures to prevent any single team from gaining excessive advantage. As part of the ongoing reforms, the NBA hopes to foster a more competitive environment by mitigating the incentive for tanking.