World Cup 2026: How Will the Best Third-Place Teams Be Determined?

As the group stage of the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, the two best teams from each group will qualify directly for the Round of 16, along with the eight best third-placed teams. But how will these teams be identified? This article explains.

The 2026 World Cup features a total of 48 teams, creating some complex scenarios. The final matches of the group stage begin on Wednesday, June 24, with Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar and Switzerland vs. Canada at 19:00 UT (21:00 French time). With all matches from Groups A to L to be played by Sunday, calculations are necessary to determine the third-placed teams.

While the first and second places in each group ensure continuation in the tournament, only eight third-placed teams from the 12 groups will advance to the knockout stages. The first criterion for selecting the best third-placed teams is the total points accumulated. However, with many teams likely to end up with three or four points, it may lead to tie-breakers.

If points are tied, the next criterion will be goal difference. Should teams remain tied, the number of goals scored will then be decisive. In a rare case of continuing ties, fair play points, which are based on the number of yellow and red cards received by players and officials during the group phase, will come into play.

Given this rule regarding the best third-placed teams, it is theoretically possible for a team to qualify with as few as three points. However, several teams, including Haiti, Tunisia, Jordan, Panama, and Turkey, found themselves already eliminated despite having one match yet to play.

For instance, Haiti lost their matches against Brazil (3-0) and Scotland (1-0), and stood at zero points. They could have earned at most three points with a surprise win against Morocco on June 24. The complication arose as both Brazil and Morocco had already secured four points and were mathematically out of reach for Haiti. Even if Scotland lost to Brazil and Haiti won against Morocco, they would have tied at three points. However, the head-to-head results, which favor Scotland having already beaten Haiti, effectively eliminated them.

The situation unfolded with Scotland succumbing to Brazil, led by Vinicius Jr.'s double (3-0), while Haiti lost to Morocco (4-2). Consequently, Scotland finishes third in Group C with three points, but still faces uncertainty about qualifying among the best third-placed teams for the Round of 16. Meanwhile, Haiti ended in the last position of their group.